Fire Weather Outlook - National USData: Map Discussion: Day 1 Day 2 Days 3-8

000
FNUS21 KWNS 161555
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 161700Z - 171200Z

...NE AZ ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DESPITE POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY RESULTING IN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15 PERCENT LATE THIS
MORNING...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON CRITICAL ISSUANCE CONTINUES TO
BE STRENGTH/DURATION OF CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF SWLY WIND SPEEDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 20 MPH BUT ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE A LONGER DURATION. AS SUCH...A CRITICAL AREA IS NOT
NEEDED ALTHOUGH BRIEF/LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE
TO WARMER FORECAST TEMPERATURES /WHICH ARE 15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL/.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY LARGER AREA EXPERIENCING RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SLIGHT
DISSOCIATION OF THE LOWEST RH VALUES /EXPECTED OVER ERN CO AND NEB
PANHANDLE/ AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS /EXPECTED OVER CNTRL NEB NWD
INTO ND/ AND MOIST/GREEN FUELS PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL
RISK.

...DRY TSTM POTENTIAL: CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES...
AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LOW OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ENHANCED SWLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. GIVEN RH VALUES BELOW
30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STARTS. ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

..MOSIER.. 05/16/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0254 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A DISTINCT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION OVER NV IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY
WHILE TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
WELL DEFINED SRN STREAM VORTEX WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS ALONG THE
GULF COAST. BETWEEN THE NV AND GULF COAST TROUGHS A WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

IN THE NRN STREAM...A PRONOUNCED AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST/NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SURGE
EWD/SEWD THIS PERIOD AND EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY EARLY THURSDAY.

...NORTHEAST AZ ACROSS FOUR CORNERS...
A BELT OF STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NERN AZ AND SRN UT AND THEN TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S F FROM NERN AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS...RH VALUES
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
MID/UPPER WAVE AND TURBULENT MIXING THROUGHOUT THE DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING. EXPECT SUSTAINED SSWLY
WINDS OF 12-17 /GUSTS 25-30/ MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHER
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 /GUSTS TO 40/ MPH ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WSWLY AND WLY AND THEN WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH LATE IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANTECEDENT SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FIRE THREAT IN THE REGION
TODAY BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
THRESHOLD FOR A CRITICAL RISK AREA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...MODEST DOWNSTREAM SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENT MASS ADJUSTMENT WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SLY WINDS TO ABOUT 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO ACROSS THE NEB PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S F IN THESE AREAS WHILE RH
FALLS TO ABOUT 15-20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO POCKETS OF ABNORMAL
DRYNESS AND MODERATE DROUGHT OVER SOME OF THE REGION...A FEW LATE
DAY HIGH-BASED/DRY TSTMS MAY SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
POSE SOME THREAT OF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STARTS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS LIMITED BY MARGINAL RH
VALUES.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

000
FNUS22 KWNS 161757
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
EXPANDED CRITICAL AREA SLIGHTLY SWD AND WWD. ADDED SEE TEXT FOR
CNTRL NV.

...SRN NV ACROSS NRN AZ...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPANDED THE
CRITICAL SLIGHTLY SWD AND WWD AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON THE
DURATION OF THE CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG INTO THE EVENING AS THE STRONG FLOW
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. WINDS AND RH ALSO
MEET CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF SWRN UT. HOWEVER...LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NON-CRITICAL FUELS.

...CNTRL NV...
SUSTAINED WLY/SWLY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 MPH
FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS TIME. LIMITED DURATION OF THE STRONG
WINDS PRECLUDES CRITICAL RISK ISSUANCE BUT ISOLATED/BRIEFLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A
POSSIBLE UPGRADE IS SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..MOSIER.. 05/16/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT IS BEING FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A DEVELOPING PACIFIC TROUGH...CURRENTLY WELL OFF THE
WEST COAST...MOVES OVER THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
FL.

...SRN NV ACROSS NRN AZ...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONGER WIND FIELDS
CROSSING THE WEST COAST DURING THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND COVERS A LARGER AREA THAN THE MOST RECENT
DISTURBANCE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES IN THE CRITICAL
RISK AREA WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S F IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH 70S AND 80S F IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ACROSS THE REGION DEPICT VERY LIMITED OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY AND THUS MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL QUICKLY BELOW 10
PERCENT WITH HEATING OF THE DAY. SUSTAINED SWLY SURFACE WINDS OF
12-17 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE BY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY STRONG INTO THE EVENING AS STRONGER FLOW IN THE BASE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN NV AND NRN AZ
DURING THIS TIME. ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS AND ANTECEDENT SEVERE
DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND FIRE
GROWTH THUS WARRANTING THE CRITICAL RISK AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

000
FNUS28 KWNS 161958
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 241200Z

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...A BELT OF
STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE SRN SEMICIRCLE WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE SW STATES ON D3/FRI AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS ON D4/SAT. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL INDUCE A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
AREA OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS ON D3/FRI.
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON D4/SAT. ON
D5/SUN...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS IN ITS WAKE.

...D3/FRI: SRN GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD...A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS AZ NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
BEST SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE AROUND THE BASAL PORTION OF
THE TROUGH SO THE PRECISE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
HAVE A LARGE EFFECT ON THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
TRACK OF THE TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN EWD SHIFT OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. AS A RESULT...TRIMMED WWD EXTENT AND EXPANDED THE EWD EXTENT
OF THE CURRENT CRITICAL AREA. FASTER TROUGH WILL ALSO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS ACROSS
WRN CO/SRN WY SO THIS AREA WAS TRIMMED OUT AS WELL. POOR RH RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES....RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT. FUELS ARE ALSO DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR ON THE EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL
AREA IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/DURATION OF THE STRONG
WINDS. AS SUCH...REFINEMENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS AS THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE TROUGH
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

...D3/FRI: PLAINS...
A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG SLY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF AN EWD PROGRESSING TROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS
EXPERIENCED GREEN-UP AND RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. AS A RESULT...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

..MOSIER.. 05/16/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...