522 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...QUITE THE DAY HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE TODAY. THREE
POTENTIAL SNOW STORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 160 HOURS
AND PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO GO ALONG WITH IT.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
YIELDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...SHOULD BE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOOKS DRY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOOK OF POTENTIAL WITH THIS
STORM FOR TONIGHT...BUT THE QUESTION TODAY HAS NOT BEEN IF THERE
WILL BE A 6+" SNOWBAND...BUT WHERE. IN GENERAL...THERE HAS BEEN
TWO CLUSTERS OF MODEL GUIDANCE: THE UKMET/EC IN ONE CAMP AND THE
GFS/GEM/SREF/ IN THE OTHER. THE 12Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER TO THE
NORTH AND BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE
TWIN CITIES METRO. THE 18Z NAM JOINED THE GFS/SREF/GEM CAMP AND
CAME IN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DEBATED ON UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A
COMBINATION OF WARNING/ADVISORY WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN
MARTIN AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES. IN FACT...EVEN HAD THE WARNING
DRAWN UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LAST FRAME OF THE HRRR
AGREES QUITE WELL WITH THE ECMWF AND WOULD KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE
SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS ALREADY A LIGHTNING STRIKE UPSTREAM IN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS USUALLY A PRETTY GOOD INDICATOR OF THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. NO SURPRISE WITH 992-993MB SURFACE LOW
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN IA BASED ON THE NAM/GFS...THERE IS
VERY GOOD 800-600MB FGEN TO GO ALONG WITH NEGATIVE EPV AND AT
LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY-BEST LI APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA WITH 2/3 GRAM MIXING RATIOS OFF THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. THE
FORECAST SIDES WITH THE GFS/GEM/NAM/SREF CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH NOW THE LATEST HRRR AGREEING QUITE
WELL WITH THE ECMWF. IT'S A FEAST OF FAMINE SITUATION-THERE WILL
LIKELY BE 6-10 INCHES...POSSIBLY A FOOT...IN A NARROW CORRIDOR
WHERE THE BEST FORCING SETS UP AND NOT MUCH TO THE NORTH OF IT.
DRAMATICALLY REDUCED POPS AND AMOUNT OF SNOW IN METRO...MIGHT BE
NOTHING AT. USUALLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEFORMATION.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM LOOKS POTENT...JUST NOT
SOME MUCH FOR HERE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD AND HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT BASED ON THE ASSORTMENT OF OPERATIONAL RUNS
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...A LOT OF SNOW
AND WIND IN THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN AND NOT MUCH HERE. GFS
SPITS OUT THE HIGHEST QPF...BUT IT MIGHT BE OVERDONE. THERE ARE
FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL...DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
ANYTHING MAJOR IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. THERE'S ANOTHER WHOPPER OFF
THE GFS THIS TIME NEXT...BUT NOT SHOWING UP AS MUCH ON THE ECMWF
AND GFS ENSEMBLE TO SOME DEGREE. THE 12Z GFS HAD A BAND OF 12-18"
IN SOUTHERN MN...SOMETHING THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A WINTER STORM FOR 
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. EXPECT A NARROW 
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO SETUP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER 
COUNTIES OF MINNESOTA. WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA EXPECTED TO 
LOWER TO LIFR CATEGORY THURSDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR 
CATEGORY THURSDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF 
SITES...VFR FLYING CONDITION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE 
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN...WHERE 
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET AGL.    

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WEATHER 
SYSTEM WILL MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY GRAZE THE SOUTHERN METRO 
AREA. SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY...LITTLE 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. CEILING BRIEFLY LOWERING AROUND 2500 FEET 
AGL. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 3 AM CST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY      
AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-     
REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.

&&

$$

CLF/JM 

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